90% — Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 9.5% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026 Leader: Above 3.4 million at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 14 contracts · $9 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 19:22:38 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether DraftKings' sportsbook division will achieve a net revenue margin above 9.5% in the third quarter of 2026. The 87% probability reflects confidence that the company will maintain relatively strong profitability in its core betting business. Market margins are primarily driven by competitive intensity in the sportsbook sector and DraftKings' ability to balance customer acquisition spending with retention. The key uncertainty hinges on promotional activity levels during Q3, which is typically a high-volume sports season. Resolution will occur in October 2026 when DraftKings reports Q3 2026 earnings, making the contract sensitive to shifts in promotional calendar announcements or competitive pricing moves from rivals like FanDuel and BetMGM in the coming weeks. Key factors: - DraftKings' promotional spend relative to revenue in Q3 2026, which directly compresses sportsbook margins and is observable in quarterly guidance - Total sportsbook handle growth and the competitive pricing environment, which determines whether DraftKings can sustain 9.5%+ margins despite acquisition spending - Year-over-year change in state-by-state regulatory environments or tax rates that would mechanically affect reportable net revenue margins - The spread between the 7% and 9.5% margin contracts (49¢ vs 87¢) suggests material uncertainty about reaching the higher threshold despite current leader pricing - Q2 2026 actual reported margin and management guidance for Q3, which will be disclosed before options markets fully adjust Contracts: - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 3.4 million average monthly unique payers in Q3 2026?: Above 3.4 million — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 5.5% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026?: Above 5.5% — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 3.6 million average monthly unique payers in Q3 2026?: Above 3.6 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 6% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026?: Above 6% — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 6.5% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026?: Above 6.5% — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 3.8 million average monthly unique payers in Q3 2026?: Above 3.8 million — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 7% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026?: Above 7% — 55¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 25%) - Will DraftKings Inc. report Above 7.5% sportsbook net revenue margin in Q3 2026?: Above 7.5% — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:51.633Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dkng Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DraftKings%20Inc.%20report%20Above%209.5%25%20sportsbook%20net%20revenue%20margin%20in%20Q3%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev