21% — Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention Leader: Boston at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 5 contracts · $37 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:43 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: Boston is currently priced as the most likely host for the 2028 Democratic National Convention at 20%, meaning traders estimate a one-in-five chance the party selects Boston over other candidates. The Democratic National Committee typically selects convention hosts 2-3 years in advance, weighing factors like arena capacity, local party infrastructure, and geographic strategy. Boston faces competition from Chicago, Denver, and Philadelphia—all priced between 10-19%—which have hosted recent conventions or represent key swing regions. The formal selection decision, expected in late 2026 or early 2027, represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this market. Until then, movement could reflect shifts in Democratic campaign priorities, venue availability changes, or local political developments in candidate cities. Key factors: - The DNC typically announces convention host cities 18-30 months before the event; a formal decision in late 2026/early 2027 would substantially narrow uncertainty - Boston has hosted major political events but lacks recent convention experience compared to cities like Denver (2008) and Chicago (1996), which may factor into selection criteria - Geographic distribution matters to the DNC; selecting from the Northeast (Boston, Philadelphia) versus Midwest (Chicago) versus Mountain West (Denver) reflects different strategic assumptions about battleground regions - Arena capacity and existing infrastructure costs vary significantly—Boston's TD Garden (19,000) versus larger venues in competing cities affects feasibility and budget - Incumbent Democratic strength in northeastern Massachusetts versus competitive margins in swing-state locations like Philadelphia or Denver may influence the committee's venue preference Contracts: - Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Boston — 21¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 27%) - Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Chicago — 20¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 7%) - Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Atlanta — 15¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 26%) - Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Denver — 15¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 14%) - Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Philadelphia — 12¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 27%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.401Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dnc28host Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20city%20will%20host%20the%202028%20Democratic%20national%20convention Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev