87% — Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026
Leader: Above 12 million at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that the Democratic National Committee will hold more than $12 million in cash reserves by June 30, 2026. The 81% confidence suggests market participants expect the DNC to maintain a substantial war chest heading into the 2026 midterm campaign cycle. Key drivers include the pace of fundraising relative to spending on operations, campaign infrastructure, and ongoing political activities. The DNC's cash position fluctuates based on donation cycles, major donor events, and whether party resources are being deployed for special elections or candidate support. The June 30 deadline coincides with mid-year financial reporting requirements, providing concrete public data to resolve this question. The spread between the $12 million threshold (81%) and higher benchmarks—$14 million at 70% and $20 million at 25%—suggests traders view substantial reserves as likely but significant growth as less certain.

Key factors:
- DNC fundraising performance in Q1 and Q2 2026 relative to their spending commitments and operational budget
- Whether the party makes major expenditures for special elections, candidate recruitment, or midterm preparation before June 30
- Historical DNC cash-on-hand patterns during non-presidential election years and their typical reserve levels
- Donor sentiment and contribution velocity, which tend to correlate with political momentum and election cycle timing
- Official FEC filings due June 30 will provide the definitive cash-on-hand figure, leaving minimal ambiguity in resolution

Contracts:
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 12000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 12 million — 87¢ Kalshi $251 (weight 15%)
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 14000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 14 million — 73¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 3%)
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 16000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 16 million — 39¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 82%)
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 18000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 18 million — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Democratic National Committee's cash on hand be above 20000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 20 million — 6¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.940Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dnccash
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20National%20Committee's%20cash%20on%20hand%20be%20above%2012000000%20as%20of%20June%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev