61% — Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 13:04:00 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects expectations that the U.S. Department of Energy will announce a solicitation to buy, exchange, or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by October 1, 2026—roughly five weeks away. The 7% probability suggests traders view such an announcement as unlikely in this short timeframe. SPR transactions depend on energy market conditions, administration policy, and congressional authorization. Oil prices, geopolitical disruptions, and budget decisions would typically drive timing. The main catalyst is whether DOE issues any formal solicitation notice before the deadline; current market activity and energy prices will inform this decision. The progressively higher probabilities for longer timeframes (7% by Jan 2027, 10% by Jan 2028) indicate traders expect such announcements remain possible but not imminent within weeks. Key factors: - Current crude oil price levels and market volatility—lower prices or energy supply concerns increase likelihood of SPR actions - No announced SPR solicitation or policy statement from DOE as of late August 2026, suggesting low near-term probability - Historical SPR transaction frequency and typical notice periods between authorization and public solicitation announcements - Congressional appropriations or budget authority requirements that may precondition any SPR activity - Geopolitical events or energy market disruptions that could accelerate DOE decision-making on emergency reserves Contracts: - Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) - Will the U.S. Department of Energy announce issuing a solicitation to exchange or sell crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T12:20:50.172Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/doesprtender-26aug Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Energy%20announce%20issuing%20a%20solicitation%20to%20exchange%20or%20sell%20crude%20oil%20from%20the%20Strategic%20Petroleum%20Reserve%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev