9% — Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader: Above $0.11 at 9% · Kalshi 9% · 6 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market asks whether Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.14 by April 30, 2026. With markets pricing this at 29%, traders are assessing whether DOGE will maintain or exceed that level over the next four weeks. The probability reflects uncertainty about near-term cryptocurrency volatility, macroeconomic conditions, and DOGE-specific developments. Upward pressure would require sustained buying interest or positive catalysts; downward pressure could come from broader crypto weakness or profit-taking after any recent gains. The resolution date itself acts as the primary catalyst—no specific scheduled event appears to drive expectations, so the outcome depends on continuous market dynamics through late April rather than a discrete announcement or data release.

Key factors:
- DOGE's current price relative to $0.14 and recent 4-week price volatility compared to historical ranges
- Correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, since altcoins typically track major crypto assets
- Trading volume and order-book depth on major exchanges, indicating conviction behind current price levels
- Macroeconomic factors (Fed policy, risk sentiment) that typically influence speculative asset demand
- Absence of scheduled announcements or protocol changes that might create sudden directional pressure

Contracts:
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.11 — 9¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 5%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.13 — 6¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 4%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.12 — 6¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 3%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.15 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.15 — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 77%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.17 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.17 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $0.14 — 3¢ Kalshi $331 (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.690Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dogemaxmon-doge
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DOGE%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%240.14%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev