52% — Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Above $0.11 at 52% · Kalshi 52% · 5 contracts · $37 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 39% probability that Dogecoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $0.13 by year-end 2026. The contract sits between the more heavily traded $0.08 threshold (68% implied) and the $0.14 threshold (26% implied), reflecting uncertainty about DOGE's trajectory in the final five months of the year. Broader crypto market volatility, Bitcoin's performance, and retail sentiment around meme assets are primary drivers of these probabilities. The wide spacing between contract prices ($0.08 to $0.15) suggests meaningful disagreement about whether DOGE will consolidate below $0.12 or push toward higher levels. Resolution depends on actual price data on December 31, 2026, with no intermediate catalyst—only cumulative market conditions over the remaining 161 days will determine the outcome.

Key factors:
- DOGE currently trades substantially below the $0.13 threshold based on recent spot prices, requiring significant appreciation within five months
- The $0.08 contract commands 68% implied probability while $0.13 is at 39%, indicating markets expect modest gains but not sharp rallies
- Bitcoin correlation and altcoin season dynamics historically drive DOGE performance; a crypto downturn would pressure achievement of higher price targets
- The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme prices, making the outcome less vulnerable to flash crashes or manipulation on any single exchange
- 24-hour trading volume across these contracts ($82–$200) is moderate, suggesting these prices reflect genuine disagreement rather than thin liquidity artifacts

Contracts:
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.11 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.11 — 52¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 100%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.12 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.12 — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.14 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.14 — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.15 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.15 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DOGE trimmed mean be above $0.13 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026?: Above $0.13 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.901Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "52% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dogemaxy-doge
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DOGE%20trimmed%20mean%20be%20above%20%240.13%20by%2011%3A59%20PM%20ET%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev