93% — Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 430 Million Leader: Above 410 Million at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 7 contracts · $90 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-28 19:30:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects traders' assessment that Carbon Arc Domino's US foot traffic will exceed 430 million visits in July 2026, with an 87% probability assigned to exceeding the lower 410 million threshold. The pricing ladder—ranging from 87¢ for above-410M down to 45¢ for above-450M—suggests moderate confidence in sustained traffic volumes but meaningful uncertainty about whether visits will reach the highest levels. Resolution depends on actual foot-traffic data for July 2026, likely reported in early August. Key drivers include summer seasonality patterns, competitive promotional activity from other pizza chains, and broader consumer spending trends. The gap between the 87% and 73% probabilities (410M vs. 430M thresholds) indicates traders view a 20-million-visit range as plausible but uncertain, suggesting traffic forecasts cluster around 420–440 million without strong consensus on the exact outcome. Key factors: - July 2026 historical foot-traffic data for Carbon Arc Domino's compared to prior-year July baseline and year-to-date trend - Promotional calendar and competitive activity from other major pizza delivery/QSR chains during July 2026 - Summer consumer spending patterns and economic indicators (employment, discretionary income) as of mid-2026 - Reported foot-traffic data methodology and measurement accuracy from Carbon Arc's reporting source - The 20-million-visit spread between the 410M and 450M thresholds represents the market's uncertainty range, with 410M viewed as highly probable but 430M+ as moderately likely Contracts: - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 410 Million?: Above 410 Million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 420 Million?: Above 420 Million — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 430 Million?: Above 430 Million — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 440 Million?: Above 440 Million — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 450 Million?: Above 450 Million — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 460 Million?: Above 460 Million — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Carbon Arc Domino's Monthly Foot Traffic (US) for July 2026 be above 470 Million?: Above 470 Million — 3¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 100%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.916Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dpzft Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Carbon%20Arc%20Domino's%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20(US)%20for%20July%202026%20be%20above%20430%20Million Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev