30% — Will Drake release a new album? Kalshi 30% · 11 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 05:51:03 UTC Contracts: - Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026?: Lola Young — 28¢ Kalshi $802 (weight 44%) - Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?: Before August — 5¢ Kalshi $616 (weight 34%) - Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026?: PinkPantheress — 43¢ Kalshi $411 (weight 22%) - Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026?: Ice Spice — 44¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026?: Post Malone — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026?: Dua Lipa — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T05:20:51.724Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/drake-new-album Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20release%20a%20new%20album%3F Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev