41% — Will Drake release a new album?
Kalshi 41% · 12 contracts · $124 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:42 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter — 33¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 77%)
- Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?: Before August — 47¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 15%)
- Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift — 48¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 4%)
- Will Future release a new album in 2026?: Future — 72¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 4%)
- Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026?: PinkPantheress — 54¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026?: Lola Young — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026?: Post Malone — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:10.535Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/drake-new-album
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Drake%20release%20a%20new%20album%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev