32% — Will Indiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026 Kalshi 32% · 12 contracts · $248 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-28 22:15:37 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves based on whether Indiana experiences a drought category of D4 (severe drought) or worse at any point between June 4 and July 30, 2026. The current 54% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about summer drought conditions in Indiana. Regional drought patterns heavily influence this outcome: the contrast between related contracts shows Oregon at 69% and Kansas at 82%, while Indiana sits in the middle, suggesting analysts view Indiana as moderately exposed but less likely than the Great Plains states. The primary drivers are seasonal precipitation patterns and soil moisture levels through mid-to-late summer. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly updates through late July will be critical for tracking actual drought category progression. Current atmospheric conditions in May will establish baseline moisture levels, while June-July rainfall will determine whether conditions deteriorate to D4 severity. Key factors: - Indiana's current drought classification as of early June 2026 and baseline soil moisture levels entering the summer period - Total precipitation received during June and July 2026 relative to historical norms for the region - Weekly U.S. Drought Monitor classifications released each Thursday, which will track progression toward D4 category - Comparison to observable drought outcomes in neighboring states (Missouri, Illinois, Ohio) that share similar climate patterns - Temperature extremes and evapotranspiration rates during June-July, which accelerate drought conditions when combined with below-normal precipitation Contracts: - Will Tennessee have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Tennessee — 30¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 27%) - Will Oregon have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Oregon — 62¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 25%) - Will Minnesota have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Minnesota — 15¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 24%) - Will Kansas have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Kansas — 33¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 19%) - Will Arizona have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Arizona — 22¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 3%) - Will California have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: California — 7¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 3%) - Will Missouri have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Missouri — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Louisiana have a maximum drought category of at least D4 during June 4–July 30, 2026?: Louisiana — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-28T21:20:50.568Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/droughtlevel Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Indiana%20have%20a%20maximum%20drought%20category%20of%20at%20least%20D4%20during%20June%204%E2%80%93July%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev