94% — Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%
Leader: Above -15% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 4 contracts · $229 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This question asks whether Dr. Pepper's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed a decline of 11 percent. The 7% probability indicates market participants view this outcome as unlikely, suggesting most expect steeper negative growth or stability closer to -15% or -3% decline. Dr. Pepper's POS performance reflects broader consumer demand, retail inventory decisions, and competitive pressures in the carbonated soft drink category. The current price cluster—with contracts at 48¢ (above -11%), 46¢ (above -7%), and 21¢ (above -3%)—suggests a median expectation around -7% to -11% decline for the month. Resolution depends on actual August sales data release, typically available within 2-3 weeks after month-end. Key drivers include summer promotional activity, competitor pricing, and consumer spending patterns during the period.

Key factors:
- August 2026 POS data release timing and the specific growth rate reported versus the -11% threshold
- Competitive promotional intensity from other soft drink brands during summer peak season
- Consumer spending trends and retail demand signals in carbonated beverages during the measurement period
- Inventory restocking or depletion decisions by major retailers that affect reported POS transactions
- Comparison to Dr. Pepper's historical August performance and year-over-year growth rates

Contracts:
- Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -15%?: Above -15% — 94¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 37%)
- Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -11%?: Above -11% — 93¢ Kalshi $140 (weight 61%)
- Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -7%?: Above -7% — 84¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 2%)
- Will Dr. Pepper Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -3%?: Above -3% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:46.168Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/drpepperpos
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Dr.%20Pepper%20Point%20of%20Sale%20Growth%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20-11%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev