74% — Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026
Leader: Above 140,000 at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 13:00:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents market expectations that the Democratic Socialists of America will report between 130,000 and 170,000 members in good standing by December 2026. The organization's membership has fluctuated significantly in recent years, influenced by political cycles and activism levels. The 91% probability on the 130,000+ threshold suggests strong confidence the organization maintains its current membership base, while the declining probabilities at higher thresholds (36% for 170,000+) reflect uncertainty about sustained growth. The main drivers are retention rates during the 2026 election cycle, recruitment of new members, and overall political engagement in the socialist movement. The key catalyst is the official membership count reported in December 2026, which will definitively resolve all contracts.

Key factors:
- DSA's membership trends in presidential election years, particularly engagement and retention patterns between 2024 and 2026
- Recent historical membership reporting: DSA reported approximately 95,000 members in 2023 and growth trajectories since then
- The gap between the 130,000 floor (91% probability) and 170,000 ceiling (36% probability) reflects substantial uncertainty about growth acceleration in a non-presidential election year
- External political factors including Democratic party dynamics, activist mobilization, and competing socialist organizations' activities
- Timing and accuracy of DSA's official December 2026 membership count as reported to the organization and public

Contracts:
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 140000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 140,000 — 74¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 130000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 130,000 — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 150000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 150,000 — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 170000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 170,000 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will the organization-wide number of Democratic Socialists of America members in good standing be above 160000 as reported for December 2026?: Above 160,000 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T11:20:51.437Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dsamembership
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20organization-wide%20number%20of%20Democratic%20Socialists%20of%20America%20members%20in%20good%20standing%20be%20above%20170000%20as%20reported%20for%20December%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev