94% — Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 Leader: Above 2 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 5 contracts · $126 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:40:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This market measures whether Democratic Socialists of America-endorsed candidates will win more than 2 federal primary elections scheduled after June 25, 2026. The 85% probability reflects high confidence in this threshold based on DSA's demonstrated ability to elect members to federal office in recent election cycles. The main driver of this elevated probability is DSA's track record: the organization has successfully backed candidates in House races, particularly in New York and other urban districts with favorable demographics. However, the steep price drop at higher thresholds (35% for above 4, 10% for above 10) suggests meaningful uncertainty about sustained success across multiple races. The decisive factor will be primary results through the fall 2026 election cycle, which will determine whether DSA-backed candidates can achieve wins across diverse geographic and competitive contexts. Key factors: - DSA has elected at least 3 members to the U.S. House since 2018 (Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib, Omar), establishing a baseline of primary-winning capacity - 2026 primaries occur unevenly across states; outcomes depend on which districts hold competitive races and field DSA-backed challengers - The organization's endorsement footprint is concentrated in urban districts with specific demographic profiles; expanding beyond these areas historically proves more difficult - Incumbent protection dynamics in Democratic primaries typically disadvantage outside challengers, limiting opportunities for DSA candidates to unseat sitting members - Late June scheduling means most federal primaries remain unscheduled; final answer depends entirely on race outcomes across August-September 2026 primary elections Contracts: - Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 2 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 2 — 94¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 71%) - Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 4 — 86¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 29%) - Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 6 — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 8 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 8 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026?: Above 10 — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T08:20:49.523Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dsawins Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20total%20count%20of%20candidates%20endorsed%20by%20the%20Democratic%20Socialists%20of%20America%20(DSA)%2C%20including%20local%20chapters%2C%20who%20win%20a%202026%20federal%20primary%20election%20scheduled%20on%20or%20after%20June%2025%2C%202026%20be%20above%2010%20primary%20elections%20scheduled%20on%20or%20after%20June%2025%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev