26% — Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028
Kalshi 26% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:33:50 UTC

Why this matters:
The 19% probability reflects low near-term expectations for federal legislation mandating year-round Daylight Saving Time by early 2028. The current odds suggest market participants view passage as unlikely within this 20-month window, despite recurring legislative interest. Support for permanent DST has existed across multiple Congressional sessions, but bills have consistently stalled due to disagreement over whether to lock in standard time or daylight time, and competing interests from agriculture, broadcast media, and health advocates. The main factors that could shift this probability are a sudden shift in congressional priorities or a high-profile push by a new administration. The period immediately following any 2026 midterm elections and the first 100 days of potential 2028 presidential administration represent key moments when legislative calendar space might open.

Key factors:
- Previous federal DST legislation (Energy Policy Act of 2005) required 6+ years of development before passage, establishing a slow historical baseline
- Current Congressional gridlock and competing state-level time zone experiments reduce federal legislative bandwidth
- Major stakeholder opposition from agricultural and broadcast sectors has blocked bills in prior sessions despite bipartisan language
- No scheduled federal vote or committee markup is currently calendared for this issue as of May 2026
- The 2028 presidential election cycle typically constrains legislative movement on non-emergency issues in the latter half of 2027

Contracts:
- Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will legislation establishing permanent Daylight Saving Time become law before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029 — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:09.731Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dst
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20establishing%20permanent%20Daylight%20Saving%20Time%20become%20law%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev