85% — Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 60.5 million at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 20 contracts · $21 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 16:23:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing an 81% probability that Duolingo will report at least 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, reflecting trader expectations that user growth will remain strong but not accelerate dramatically. The company has grown its DAU base consistently through product improvements and marketing, though growth rates naturally moderate at scale. Traders are pricing in sustained usage patterns during a period when language-learning apps face ongoing competition. The key uncertainty is whether user retention holds steady and whether new geographic or demographic expansion drives incremental growth. The outcome will be determined when Duolingo reports its FY2026 financial results, likely in early 2027, at which point actual DAU figures will settle all related contracts. The spread across contracts—from 6% probability above 68 million to 81% above 60.5 million—suggests traders see meaningful uncertainty above the 62-million threshold, with a concentration of probability in the 60–62 million range.

Key factors:
- Duolingo's reported DAU figures for the past three quarters, compared to fiscal 2025 end-of-year baseline, will indicate whether the growth trajectory supports 60.5+ million by fiscal year-end 2026
- User retention and engagement metrics (session length, monthly active to daily active ratio) from competitor reports and industry surveys can reveal whether market saturation or churn pressures are intensifying
- Duolingo's capital allocation decisions and marketing spend efficiency in H2 2026 directly influence whether DAU growth accelerates, plateaus, or declines toward year-end
- Geographic expansion announcements or product launches (e.g., new language offerings or feature rollouts) typically precede or accompany material DAU changes
- The company's year-over-year DAU growth rate in Q2/Q3 2026 earnings reports will be the most direct leading indicator of whether 62 million DAU is reachable by FY2026 close

Contracts:
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 60.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 60.5 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.4 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 13.4 million — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 61 million — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 61.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 61.5 million — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 62 million — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 62.5 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 62.5 million — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 13.6 million paid subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 13.6 million — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Duolingo Inc. report Above 63 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 63 million — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.621Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/duola
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Duolingo%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2062%20million%20daily%20active%20users%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev