16% — Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Kalshi 16% · 20 contracts · $453 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 08:37:45 UTC Why this matters: This contract reflects the likelihood that figure skater Madison Chock will compete as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. At 17%, the market suggests she is considered a moderately unlikely choice for the show, though not among the longest of long shots. Casting decisions for DWTS typically depend on several factors: celebrity status and public recognition, current availability and schedule conflicts, prior dance experience, and network preferences for demographic appeal. The primary driver of probability would be official confirmation of the Season 35 cast, which typically occurs in the weeks leading up to the season premiere. Until that announcement, uncertainty remains high. Comparatively, the market prices other potential contestants like Jenna Dewan at 58% and Bart Johnson at 31%, suggesting Chock is viewed as a less likely selection than some other candidates being evaluated. The resolution of this contract will occur when ABC officially announces the full contestant lineup for Season 35. Key factors: - Madison Chock's figure skating background could appeal to DWTS casting, but competitive ice dancers often have limited availability due to ongoing skating commitments - The market prices Jenna Dewan at 58% and Bart Johnson at 31%, indicating Chock faces direct competition from other candidates considered more likely by traders - Official cast announcements for DWTS Season 35 have not yet occurred as of early July 2026, leaving the primary resolution event pending - Chock's public profile and media presence relative to other potential contestants influences her likelihood of selection by the network - Prior cast selections have shown a mix of celebrities from entertainment, sports, and reality television, without clear predictable patterns for ice sports athletes Contracts: - Will Rob Gronkowski perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Rob Gronkowski — 11¢ Kalshi $267 (weight 59%) - Will Taylor Lautner perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Taylor Lautner — 9¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 16%) - Will Nic Vansteenberghe perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Nic Vansteenberghe — 3¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 14%) - Will Jenna Dewan perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Jenna Dewan — 65¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 4%) - Will Mikaela Shiffrin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Mikaela Shiffrin — 8¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 3%) - Will Ilia Malinin perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Ilia Malinin — 11¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 3%) - Will Julie Chrisley perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Julie Chrisley — 12¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 1%) - Will Todd Chrisley perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Todd Chrisley — 17¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:50.232Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dwtscast Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Madison%20Chock%20perform%20as%20an%20official%20contestant%20in%20Dancing%20with%20the%20Stars%20Season%2035 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev