13% — Will Madison Chock perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Kalshi 13% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:24 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 6% chance that Madison Chock, a professional ice dancer, will compete as a contestant on Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether ABC will cast her in the upcoming season. Key factors include whether producers select athletes from winter sports for the casting roster, Madison Chock's availability and interest in participating, and how the show's typical contestant pool is structured. The casting announcement—expected before the season's premiere—would definitively resolve this question. Until then, the low probability suggests market participants view her selection as unlikely relative to other potential contestants, though not impossible given the show's occasional recruitment of Olympic or professional athletes. Key factors: - Madison Chock's professional ice dancing career and Olympic visibility may make her appealing to producers seeking established athletes, but no public indication exists that she has been approached or expressed interest - Dancing with the Stars Season 35 casting announcements typically occur 1-3 months before the premiere, which would provide the primary catalyst for resolution - Comparable probability levels for other potential contestants (Amber Glenn 6%, Bow Wow 6%, Cam Newton 6%) suggest this represents a baseline threshold for speculative or lower-likelihood casting choices - The show's historical tendency to cast celebrities with existing fan bases or media profiles rather than purely athletic credentials may work against selection of niche sports figures - Official contestant rosters are publicly announced by ABC and major entertainment outlets, making this a fully resolvable binary event Contracts: - Will Flavor Flav perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Flavor Flav — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Bart Johnson perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Bart Johnson — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Jenna Dewan perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Jenna Dewan — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Amber Glenn perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Amber Glenn — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Ashanti perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Ashanti — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Bow Wow perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Bow Wow — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Brittany Cartwright perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Brittany Cartwright — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - Will Cam Newton perform as an official contestant in Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Cam Newton — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.040Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dwtscast Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Madison%20Chock%20perform%20as%20an%20official%20contestant%20in%20Dancing%20with%20the%20Stars%20Season%2035 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev