47% — Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale Kalshi 47% · 11 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-10-14 08:07:59 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects a 31% probability that Tyler Cameron will advance to the finale of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. Cameron's advancement depends on accumulating enough votes through weekly eliminations and maintaining competitive performance scores from the judges. The primary drivers of this probability are viewer voting patterns and his technical progress relative to other contestants. Most contestants at 40 cents or higher (like Harry Shum Jr. at 69 cents) suggest stronger perceived frontrunner status. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the season's weekly elimination rounds, with the finale typically occurring in late November. Cameron's chances could shift materially based on his choreography difficulty, performance consistency, and whether he generates sustained audience engagement across the remaining weeks. Key factors: - Tyler Cameron's current position at 31% is substantially lower than several other male contestants (Harry Shum Jr. at 69%, Connor Wood at 40%), indicating market assessment of his relative competitive standing - Weekly judge scores and viewer voting patterns will directly determine progression; his trajectory depends on maintaining or improving performance quality as competition intensifies - Thirteen active contracts on Kalshi with $2,207 in 24-hour volume indicates moderate but not exceptional liquidity for this specific outcome - Casting of Season 35 and contestant pairings with professional dancers affect perceived competitive advantage; initial choreography assignment and partner chemistry matter for performance consistency - Fan engagement and social media momentum across eight to ten weeks of competition will compound to determine final voting results that gate finals qualification Contracts: - Will Tyler Cameron qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Tyler Cameron — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 55%) - Will Guillermo Rodriguez qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Guillermo Rodriguez — 18¢ Kalshi $570 (weight 12%) - Will Connor Wood qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Connor Wood — 35¢ Kalshi $311 (weight 7%) - Will Ezra Frech qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Ezra Frech — 96¢ Kalshi $218 (weight 5%) - Will Jenna Dewan qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Jenna Dewan — 53¢ Kalshi $217 (weight 5%) - Will Amber Glenn qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Amber Glenn — 85¢ Kalshi $213 (weight 5%) - Will Jackson Olson qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Jackson Olson — 4¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 4%) - Will Maura Higgins qualify for the DWTS Season 35 finale?: Maura Higgins — 83¢ Kalshi $194 (weight 4%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-10-12T16:20:51.834Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, October 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dwtsfinals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tyler%20Cameron%20qualify%20for%20the%20DWTS%20Season%2035%20finale Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev