28% — Will Julia Stiles finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Kalshi 28% · 12 contracts · $336 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 23:15:18 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 3% chance that Julia Stiles finishes in the top three of Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects that Stiles, while an accomplished actor known for roles in films like the Bourne series, lacks a public background in ballroom or competitive dance. Markets typically assign low probabilities to celebrity contestants without prior dance experience, though the outcome depends on her actual performance once the season begins and judges' scores accumulate. The main resolution event is the airing of Season 35 episodes and the announcement of finalists, which will definitively show whether Stiles advances through elimination rounds to reach the top three. Factors pushing this probability upward would include exceptional natural dance ability or strong early judge feedback; factors pushing it lower would include early elimination or consistently lower scores compared to other contestants. Key factors: - Julia Stiles has no publicly documented competitive dance background, whereas top finishers typically either have prior experience or demonstrate rapid improvement - The aggregate market pricing her at 3% suggests similar odds to multiple other contestants, indicating broad uncertainty rather than strong differentiation against her - Season 35 has not yet aired as of early September 2026, meaning actual performance data and judge scores are unavailable - Elimination in Dancing with the Stars is determined by combined judge scores and audience voting, both of which remain unknown until episodes air - Her casting as an established film actor with substantial prior career commitments may create scheduling or preparation disadvantages compared to contestants with more available training time Contracts: - Will Maura Higgins finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Maura Higgins — 64¢ Kalshi $189 (weight 56%) - Will Taylor Hanson finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Taylor Hanson — 11¢ Kalshi $54 (weight 16%) - Will Jenna Dewan finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Jenna Dewan — 60¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 8%) - Will Julia Stiles finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Julia Stiles — 22¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 8%) - Will Harry Shum Jr. finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Harry Shum Jr. — 59¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 7%) - Will Tatyana Ali finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Tatyana Ali — 5¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 3%) - Will Ezra Frech finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Ezra Frech — 35¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Will Connor Wood finish in the Top 3 on Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Connor Wood — 19¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T21:20:50.538Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dwtstop3 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Julia%20Stiles%20finish%20in%20the%20Top%203%20on%20Dancing%20with%20the%20Stars%20Season%2035 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev