91% — Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60% Leader: At least 0.20% at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 10 contracts · $3 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 11:12:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the market's assessment that the U.S. Dollar Index futures contract will move at least 0.60% in either direction on July 29, 2026. At 91%, traders view such a move as quite likely within the timeframe. The high probability reflects expectations for meaningful currency volatility, likely driven by upcoming economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical developments that typically influence dollar strength. The main driver of this probability level is the calendar proximity to potential macroeconomic announcements in late July—such as employment reports, inflation data, or Fed policy signals—that historically trigger 0.60%+ intraday or settlement-price swings in the dollar index. Uncertainty could shift downward if economic data disappoints expectations or upward if major central bank decisions are announced during this period. Key factors: - Historical volatility of ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures typically ranges 0.40–0.80% daily; a 0.60% threshold sits in the middle-to-upper range of normal trading days - Implied probability of 0.20% moves (91%) versus 0.60% moves (current level) suggests the market expects tail-risk volatility events between these dates - Volume and open interest in July 2026 front-month contracts will determine liquidity; thin trading could amplify price swings in either direction - Scheduled economic releases between now and July 29 (jobs reports, CPI, ISM data, Fed communications) historically correlate with currency index moves exceeding 0.60% - Current VIX and currency-implied volatility levels act as leading indicators; elevated volatility expectations would support higher probability of 0.60%+ moves Contracts: - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.20%?: At least 0.20% — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.40%?: At least 0.40% — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.60%?: At least 0.60% — 56¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 100%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 0.80%?: At least 0.80% — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.00%?: At least 1.00% — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.20%?: At least 1.20% — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.40%?: At least 1.40% — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the absolute percentage change in the official daily settlement price of the front-month ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract for July 29, 2026 be at least 1.60%?: At least 1.60% — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.617Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dxyfomc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20absolute%20percentage%20change%20in%20the%20official%20daily%20settlement%20price%20of%20the%20front-month%20ICE%20U.S.%20Dollar%20Index%20futures%20contract%20for%20July%2029%2C%202026%20be%20at%20least%200.60%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev