12% — What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Centennial at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $38K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-29 22:00:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 72% probability that American Airlines will mention Chicago O'Hare airport specifically during their next earnings call. The leading contract reflects investor expectations that the carrier will discuss operations at this major hub, potentially in the context of capacity changes, fleet redeployment, or strategic initiatives. Sentiment would shift upward if O'Hare faces disruptions or becomes central to AAL's near-term strategy, and downward if management pivots focus to other hubs like Dallas or Charlotte. The next earnings call—typically scheduled within 4-6 weeks following quarter-end—will definitively resolve whether this topic receives explicit mention. Key factors: - American Airlines' operational significance at Chicago O'Hare as one of its largest domestic hubs could trigger discussion if capacity, staffing, or infrastructure changes are planned - The contract's 72¢ price reflects asymmetric probability compared to runner-ups (Centennial at 65¢), suggesting market participants view O'Hare mentions as more likely than alternative outcomes - Zero trading volume in 24 hours indicates limited recent conviction or new information flowing into this market, suggesting the current price reflects established baseline expectations rather than fresh catalyst - The earnings call date and exact quarterly results will function as the binary resolution event; any remarks about O'Hare hub operations, investments, or challenges would satisfy the contract condition - Lower-priced contracts (AT&T 29¢, Basic Economy 12¢) indicate these alternative statements are considered significantly less probable, narrowing focus to major operational or strategic topics Contracts: - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Centennial — 12¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 16%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 11¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 10%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Iran / Middle East — 8¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 17%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: World Cup — 7¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 23%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Shutdown / Shut Down — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Norfolk / Virginia — 5¢ Kalshi $871 (weight 2%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: AT&T — 4¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 17%) - What will American Airlines Group Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Holiday — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T13:20:51.500Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionaal Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20American%20Airlines%20Group%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev