87% — What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call Leader: Iran / Middle East at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 12 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability indicates the market expects Air Canada to mention Airbus during their next earnings call with 82% confidence. Air Canada's substantial fleet modernization initiatives and ongoing aircraft procurement decisions with Airbus make equipment discussions likely during investor updates. The leading 82% probability reflects Airbus's significance as a major supplier to the airline. An earnings call typically covers capital expenditure plans, fleet composition, and procurement timelines—topics where Airbus involvement would naturally surface. The main factors pushing this higher or lower would be whether Air Canada has recent aircraft delivery milestones, new orders to announce, or maintenance/operational issues requiring discussion. The resolution depends entirely on the content of Air Canada's next quarterly or annual earnings call, which will be publicly available and verifiable through the company's published transcript. Key factors: - Air Canada's recent fleet composition and modernization strategy, including existing Airbus aircraft orders and delivery schedules - Timing of the earnings call relative to major aviation industry announcements or Air Canada's capital allocation announcements - Competitive pressures and fuel efficiency discussions that would typically reference specific aircraft models like Airbus platforms - Whether Air Canada has announced new Airbus orders, groundings, or delivery deferrals that would warrant earnings call commentary - Historical frequency of aircraft supplier mentions in Air Canada's previous earnings call transcripts Contracts: - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Iran / Middle East — 87¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 0%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Airbus — 79¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 0%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Weather — 70¢ Kalshi $936 (weight 5%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Headwind — 64¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 0%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind — 62¢ Kalshi $859 (weight 5%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Inflation — 52¢ Kalshi $190 (weight 1%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: World Cup — 44¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - What will Air Canada say during their next earnings call?: Cuba / Cuban — 40¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 46%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:51.906Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionac Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Air%20Canada%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev