7% — What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader: Oil at 7% · Kalshi 7% · 6 contracts · $42K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:37:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Alaska Air Group will mention Boeing during their next earnings call. At 87%, the market assigns high confidence to this outcome, likely driven by Alaska Air's substantial fleet of Boeing aircraft and ongoing industry discussions around aircraft delivery timelines and supply chain issues. The probability could shift if Alaska Air's operational focus shifts dramatically toward other concerns like fuel costs (Oil at 67%) or if Boeing-related developments become less relevant to their business narrative. The next earnings call date will resolve this question, at which point participants can verify whether Boeing was indeed discussed and how prominently.

Key factors:
- Alaska Air Group operates one of the largest Boeing 737 fleets in commercial aviation, making aircraft performance and delivery schedules material to earnings discussions
- Oil futures at 67¢ suggest meaningful market uncertainty about whether fuel costs will dominate the earnings narrative instead of Boeing-specific topics
- AI/Artificial Intelligence at 47¢ indicates some belief Alaska Air may discuss technology investments, though this remains a minority expectation
- The 87% leader price suggests strong consensus but with meaningful minority positions (runner-up at 81%), indicating real disagreement among participants
- 24h trading volume concentration ($81 on Boeing vs $416 on Iceland) shows uneven conviction across outcomes

Contracts:
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Oil — 7¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 40%)
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 9%)
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Iran / Middle East — 4¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 19%)
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 17%)
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Iceland — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%)
- What will Alaska Air Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: New Zealand — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T13:20:51.316Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionalk
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Alaska%20Air%20Group%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev