97% — What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call Leader: Renewal at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 17 contracts · $17K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Costco will discuss membership renewals during their next earnings call. The 97% price suggests high confidence this topic will be mentioned, likely reflecting Costco's historical pattern of addressing renewal rates and membership trends as key business metrics. Two factors drive this level: first, renewal rates are a primary driver of Costco's recurring revenue model and investor interest; second, the recent contract volumes and pricing show meaningful disagreement about what else gets discussed (inflation at 90¢, revenue at 73¢), indicating uncertainty remains about which secondary topics dominate. The earnings call itself—currently scheduled for late June 2026—will definitively resolve whether renewal language appears in management commentary or investor Q&A. Historical precedent suggests Costco regularly discusses membership metrics, but execution details and emphasis vary by quarter depending on business conditions. Key factors: - Costco's business model ties membership renewals directly to revenue stability and cash flow, making it a standard discussion point management addresses on earnings calls - The 97% probability reflects high historical frequency rather than certainty; 3% pricing indicates some scenarios where renewals receive minimal mention or get overshadowed by other topics - Secondary contracts (inflation 90¢, revenue 73¢) show material uncertainty about what topics compete for management attention during the call - Trading volume and bid-ask spreads suggest moderate liquidity and modest disagreement among participants on renewal discussion likelihood - The actual earnings call date and timing relative to quarterly results will determine resolution; delayed reporting or format changes could affect whether management explicitly addresses renewals Contracts: - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Renewal — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 8%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 95¢ Kalshi $963 (weight 6%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Kirkland — 95¢ Kalshi $466 (weight 3%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Inflation — 93¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Inventory — 88¢ Kalshi $193 (weight 1%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Expansion — 81¢ Kalshi $149 (weight 1%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Revenue — 66¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - What will Costco Wholesale Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Instacart — 63¢ Kalshi $949 (weight 5%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.163Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentioncost Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Costco%20Wholesale%20Corporation%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev