90% — What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Asia at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 10 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:14 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability measures traders' expectation that Duolingo will discuss chess features during their next earnings call, currently priced at 66%. The high confidence reflects chess's recent prominence in the company's product roadmap and marketing strategy. Market traders are weighing whether chess will be mentioned as a strategic initiative against the possibility that the company discusses other feature developments or business priorities instead. The primary catalyst is Duolingo's next scheduled earnings call, when management will provide guidance on recent product launches and user engagement metrics. Key resolution drivers include the company's emphasis on gamification features, competitive positioning against other language platforms, and whether chess maintains sufficient user adoption to warrant executive-level discussion. Key factors: - Chess was launched or significantly promoted as a Duolingo feature recently, making it a plausible earnings-call topic given typical executive commentary on new products - The 66% probability places chess discussion as the most likely single outcome among 14 distinct contract options, suggesting meaningful but not overwhelming trader conviction - Trading volume on the Chess contract ($238 in 24-hour volume) is higher than several runner-up outcomes but lower than Free Trial ($511), indicating mixed market confidence - The narrow gap between Chess (66¢) and China/Chinese (65¢) suggests traders view multiple feature categories as nearly equally likely to be mentioned - Resolution depends on specific language and emphasis during the earnings call rather than mere product existence, requiring careful determination of what constitutes mentioning chess Contracts: - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Asia — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tutor — 53¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 3%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Speaking Adventure — 44¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: 100 Million — 36¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 37%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Luckin Coffee — 32¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 18%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: ChatGPT — 28¢ Kalshi $108 (weight 1%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: McDonald's — 22¢ Kalshi $944 (weight 6%) - What will Duolingo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: LinkedIn — 15¢ Kalshi $585 (weight 4%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-06T13:20:52.476Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionduol Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Duolingo%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev