91% — What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Uncertainty at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 13 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 08:34:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This 88% probability reflects market confidence that Goldman Sachs' next earnings call will feature discussion of macroeconomic uncertainty rather than specific operational themes. The high reading suggests traders expect management to emphasize broad economic conditions and cautious outlooks over detailed commentary on specific initiatives like tariffs, regulation, or Marcus expansion. The main driver appears to be heightened market volatility and geopolitical tensions in mid-2026, which typically prompt financial firms to lead calls with macro discussion. Goldman Sachs typically reports quarterly earnings in mid-July, mid-October, mid-January, and mid-April, with the next call likely scheduled for July 2026. Traders monitoring this contract would focus on whether management's actual remarks prioritize uncertainty or shift toward concrete guidance on specific business areas. The 55-56% pricing on Regulation and Marcus suggests meaningful probability those topics dominate instead. Key factors: - Goldman Sachs' next earnings call is likely scheduled for mid-July 2026, making it the nearest catalyst for resolution - The 31-cent Tariff contract price indicates traders assign low probability to tariff discussion dominance, despite current trade policy environment - Regulation and Marcus each trade at 55-56 cents, suggesting meaningful but subordinate likelihood compared to the Uncertainty outcome - Volume concentration ($5,478 in 24h on Tariffs vs. $74 on Uncertainty) indicates active disagreement on whether macro or specific business topics will drive the call - The 88-cent Uncertainty price reflects high conviction but not certainty, leaving 12% probability mass for alternative outcomes combined Contracts: - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Uncertainty — 91¢ Kalshi $51 (weight 4%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Geopolitical — 76¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 4%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Private Credit — 74¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 4%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: SpaceX — 69¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 3%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Inflation — 68¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 2%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tailwind — 66¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 1%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Buyback — 59¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 6%) - What will The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Regulation — 56¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 2%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T08:20:49.324Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentiongs Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20The%20Goldman%20Sachs%20Group%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev