93% — What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call Leader: Foundry at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 15 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 08:40:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction reflects market expectations about Intel's messaging priorities during their next scheduled earnings call. At 96%, the Foundry business topic dominates expectations, suggesting traders believe Intel executives will emphasize their manufacturing-as-a-service strategy as a key discussion point. The positioning reflects Intel's strategic pivot toward becoming a foundry competitor and their need to update investors on progress in this capital-intensive segment. Uncertainty exists around whether management will instead prioritize other developments: their Mobileye autonomous-driving unit (71¢), recent Panther Lake processor advances (87¢), or security initiatives (61¢). The resolution will occur when Intel holds its next earnings call, likely in late October 2026, when management delivers prepared remarks and guidance. Market confidence in the Foundry focus is notably higher than alternatives, though the 87¢ second-place contract suggests material probability mass around processor technology announcements. Key factors: - Intel's foundry business represents their largest capital allocation and strategic transformation, making it a statistically likely earnings-call topic given investor focus on this division's progress - Recent industry developments in semiconductor manufacturing, U.S. subsidies, and foundry competition directly affect whether management prioritizes foundry narrative versus other business segments - Panther Lake processor timeline and competitive positioning could shift messaging priorities if the architecture faces delays or acceleration compared to prior guidance - Mobileye's autonomous-driving business and acquisition integration status provides alternative high-stakes narrative Intel might emphasize depending on recent developments - The timing of the earnings call date and any intervening industry announcements (competitor actions, regulatory changes, quarterly results) will narrow uncertainty closer to resolution Contracts: - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Foundry — 93¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 1%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Panther Lake / 18A — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Mobileye — 84¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 1%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Ultra 3 / Ultra Series 3 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Government — 53¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Security — 35¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 6%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Nvidia — 34¢ Kalshi $341 (weight 19%) - What will Intel Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Arizona — 30¢ Kalshi $592 (weight 33%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T08:20:48.791Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionintc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Intel%20Corporation%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev