95% — What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Mailchimp at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 14 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects the likelihood that Intuit will mention TurboTax Live during their next earnings call. At 64%, the contract suggests it's more probable than not that management will discuss this product line when reporting financial results. The probability level reflects uncertainty about which business segments receive emphasis during earnings calls—management typically highlights growth areas, regulatory developments, or strategic initiatives most relevant to quarterly performance. The main driver moving this probability would be Intuit's recent performance in the TurboTax Live segment and broader consumer tax software trends. The nearest catalyst is Intuit's next scheduled earnings announcement, where management will select which products and metrics to emphasize in prepared remarks and Q&A. Competing products like QuickBooks Online (54¢) and Pro Tax (60¢) show similar probability levels, suggesting multiple product discussions are also likely during the call. Key factors: - TurboTax Live's recent revenue growth or market share trajectory relative to competing segments - Historical frequency of TurboTax Live mentions in Intuit's prior earnings calls and investor materials - Quarterly performance metrics of consumer tax products versus pro tax and small business accounting solutions - Any recent M&A, competitive threats, or regulatory changes in the tax preparation industry that would warrant management commentary - Intuit's overall earnings call length and number of topics typically covered, affecting likelihood any single product receives mention Contracts: - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Mailchimp — 95¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 0%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Desktop — 92¢ Kalshi $420 (weight 11%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Online Payment — 91¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Intuit Enterprise Suite — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Investor Day — 89¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 3%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: TurboTax Live — 84¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: QuickBooks Online — 82¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 7%) - What will Intuit Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Restructuring — 78¢ Kalshi $243 (weight 7%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.615Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionintu Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Intuit%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev