84% — What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call Leader: Procedure at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 15 contracts · $677 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 00:00:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes. Why this matters: This market predicts that Johnson & Johnson will mention Ottava during their next earnings call, with a leading probability of 84%. The high confidence reflects Ottava's recent acquisition and clinical significance to J&J's portfolio, as this is a natural topic for management to discuss with investors. The probability could shift based on the timing of the earnings call relative to Ottava developments, competitive announcements, or changes in J&J's communication strategy. The next scheduled earnings call will definitively resolve this outcome by either including or excluding Ottava discussion. Movements would likely follow clinical trial updates, regulatory decisions affecting Ottava, or shifts in management's prioritization of this asset relative to other pipeline programs like Darzalex Faspro or Halda Therapeutics. Key factors: - J&J's recent acquisition of Ottava and its strategic importance to the company's robotics and surgical platforms - Historical pattern of J&J mentioning major recent acquisitions and pipeline assets during earnings calls to investors - Trading volume concentration on Ottava contract ($300 24h volume) versus Vaccine, Darzalex Faspro, and AI contracts, indicating market confidence in this outcome - Timing of next earnings call relative to any Ottava clinical, regulatory, or commercial milestones - Management's typical communication frequency regarding surgical innovation and robotics segments during investor presentations Contracts: - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Procedure — 84¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: China — 83¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 6%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Rybrevant — 82¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 4%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Europe — 81¢ Kalshi $43 (weight 6%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Ottava — 81¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 3%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 67¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 2%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Darzalex Faspro — 53¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%) - What will Johnson & Johnson say during their next earnings call?: Litigation — 41¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T23:20:49.090Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionjnj Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Johnson%20%26%20Johnson%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev