78% — What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call Leader: Trading at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 18 contracts · $363 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that JPMorgan Chase will mention a specific topic during their next earnings call, currently showing an 89% probability for one particular outcome. The market reflects traders' expectations about what management will discuss based on recent business developments and investor concerns. JPMorgan's earnings calls typically cover macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and strategic priorities. The high concentration at 89% suggests strong consensus around one outcome, while lower-priced contracts indicate fragmented expectations across alternatives like blockchain, credit cards, crypto, fintech, and tariffs. The earnings call itself will fully resolve this uncertainty, making the actual event the definitive catalyst. Trading activity has been modest, with most contracts showing limited daily volume, suggesting relatively low trader engagement relative to the contract universe. Key factors: - JPMorgan's most recent public statements and SEC filings will likely foreshadow what management prioritizes on the earnings call - Recent market developments (interest rates, regulatory announcements, geopolitical events) typically drive which topics receive emphasis in earnings communications - The timing of the earnings call and any interim company announcements between now and then could shift expectations about what management addresses - Historical patterns show JPMorgan tends to emphasize topics tied to recent earnings drivers or ongoing investor debates - Low trading volume on most contracts suggests uncertainty may be genuine rather than reflecting broad market consensus Contracts: - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Trading — 78¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Private Credit — 74¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 3%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: M&A / Merger — 74¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Buyback — 74¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Inflation — 70¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 11%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Basel 3 — 70¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Hiring — 64¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 7%) - What will JPMorgan Chase & Co. say during their next earnings call?: Geopolitical — 57¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 16%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:52.044Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionjpm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20JPMorgan%20Chase%20%26%20Co.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev