95% — What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call
Leader: Hyperscaler at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 4 contracts · $113K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 03:55:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects market expectations that Micron Technology will mention Anthropic during their next earnings call, currently priced at 89 cents. The high probability likely reflects Anthropic's recent prominence in AI discussions and Micron's role as a memory supplier to the sector. This probability would shift if Micron's earnings call focuses on other business segments or competitive dynamics, such as inventory levels, smartphone demand, or relationships with other AI companies like Nvidia. The next catalyst is Micron's scheduled earnings announcement, where management commentary on customer concentration, AI-related demand, and supply chain discussions will directly resolve this contract. Until that call occurs, the market is pricing in better-than-even odds that Anthropic receives specific mention.

Key factors:
- Micron's current customer concentration in AI-related businesses and whether earnings guidance emphasizes specific AI companies
- Timing and prominence of AI spending cycles relative to Micron's memory product cycles in the quarter being reported
- Competitive context: whether management discusses relationships with other major AI players (Nvidia at 71¢) or focuses on inventory normalization (37¢)
- Historical pattern of Micron earnings calls and how frequently they reference specific customer names versus discussing segments generically
- Market sentiment around Anthropic's funding, product adoption, and visibility among semiconductor supply-chain stakeholders in mid-2026

Contracts:
- What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Hyperscaler — 95¢ Kalshi $34K (weight 30%)
- What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: New York — 7¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 6%)
- What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 2%)
- What will Micron Technology, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Inventory — 4¢ Kalshi $69K (weight 62%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:51.445Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev