78% — What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: World Cup at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 14 contracts · $29K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-10 02:36:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction estimates a 59% chance that PepsiCo will mention a specific topic during their next earnings call. The market reflects uncertainty about which strategic business area the company will emphasize—whether cost-cutting automation, World Cup marketing, health-focused GLP-1 pharmaceutical partnerships, the Bubly brand, or the Celsius energy drink acquisition. The probability is driven by PepsiCo's recent capital allocation decisions and investor focus areas: automation investments could signal operational efficiency priorities, while emerging brands like Celsius and health-adjacent products represent growth narratives. The earnings call itself will resolve this contract when management's actual remarks are analyzed. Traders are weighing how likely it is that PepsiCo prioritizes this particular narrative over others given current market conditions, recent company announcements, and typical investor Q&A patterns. The relatively high leader probability suggests modest confidence in one outcome versus fragmented expectations across alternatives. Key factors: - PepsiCo's most recent quarterly earnings call transcripts and prepared remarks to establish baseline discussion frequency of each topic - Recent press releases, investor presentations, or strategic announcements from PepsiCo indicating management priorities in automation, sports marketing, or brand acquisitions - Calendar date of the next scheduled earnings call and any interim corporate events that might shift discussion focus - Historical trading volumes on Kalshi contracts for PepsiCo topics, showing which narratives generate sustained investor interest - Actual quarterly performance metrics in relevant segments (energy drinks, automation ROI, international marketing) that would naturally trigger earnings call commentary Contracts: - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: World Cup — 78¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Away from Home — 76¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Healthy — 35¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: China — 28¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Starbucks — 26¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Celsius — 25¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: GLP-1 — 21¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 10%) - What will PepsiCo, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Acquisition — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-09T14:20:48.702Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionpep Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20PepsiCo%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev