95% — What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call Leader: Data Center at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 19 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-23 23:37:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects traders' assessment that SpaceX will emphasize artificial intelligence or computational infrastructure during their next earnings call, with that outcome priced at 84% likelihood. The leading contract suggests strong market conviction that data center or AI-related capabilities will feature prominently in management's prepared remarks, possibly reflecting recent industry trends around AI infrastructure demand or SpaceX's own computational needs. The runner-up positions for Mars and other topics indicate meaningful uncertainty about which business segment receives primary focus. The next earnings call—typically scheduled 4-6 weeks after the preceding quarter ends—will definitively resolve the question once a transcript becomes available, making the exact date and content of management's opening remarks the primary catalyst. Market pricing could shift substantially based on recent SpaceX contract announcements, industry developments, or signals about which division management plans to highlight. Key factors: - Current pricing shows 82¢ for data center and 81¢ for 'cursor' outcomes, suggesting traders view AI/computational infrastructure as most probable discussion topic - Mars-related outcome prices at 74¢, indicating secondary but meaningful probability that space exploration goals receive emphasis - Thinner conviction on Moon (45¢) and T-Mobile (53¢) outcomes suggests lower trader confidence in telecommunications or lunar focus - 24-hour trading volumes ($1.2-1.4k for leading contracts) reflect moderate but consistent market participation in pricing these outcomes - Resolution depends on literal earnings call transcript content, making exact wording and emphasis of management remarks the determining factor Contracts: - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Data Center — 95¢ Kalshi $542 (weight 20%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Cursor — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Mars — 82¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Moon — 73¢ Kalshi $320 (weight 12%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Starbase — 73¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Unlock / Lock Up — 68¢ Kalshi $223 (weight 8%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: China / Chinese — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Space Exploration Technologies Corp. say during their next earnings call?: Anthropic / OpenAI — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.793Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionspcx Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Space%20Exploration%20Technologies%20Corp.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev