95% — What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Above 45 million at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $268 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 14:24:26 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an extremely high likelihood that United Airlines will report passenger volumes exceeding 45 million for Q2 2026, with progressively lower probabilities for higher thresholds (96% for 45M, 64% for 47.5M, 39% for 48M). This reflects expectations about summer travel demand and United's capacity deployment. Q2 historically captures spring break and early summer travel, typically the industry's strongest quarter. The probability distribution suggests markets expect robust but not exceptional performance—comfortably above the 45M floor but uncertain whether United will push toward 48M+ passengers. Resolution depends entirely on United's Q2 2026 earnings report, when the company files financial statements disclosing detailed passenger metrics. Factors that could shift these probabilities include economic conditions affecting discretionary travel, fuel costs, competitive capacity additions, and labor availability during peak season. Key factors: - Q2 2026 represents peak summer travel season; historical seasonality indicates higher passenger volumes in this quarter compared to annual averages - The probability cliff between 45M (96%) and 48M (39%) suggests markets see moderate upside risk rather than confidence in high-end capacity utilization - United's actual fleet deployment, available seat miles, and load factors during Q2 will mechanically determine passenger volumes reported in earnings - Macroeconomic conditions and employment rates in 2026 will influence discretionary leisure travel demand, a major component of Q2 traffic - The resolution date is fixed: United's Q2 2026 earnings call and financial filings will provide exact passenger data, eliminating all current uncertainty Contracts: - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45 million — 95¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 9%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 45.5 million — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46 million — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 46.5 million — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47 million — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 47.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 47.5 million — 80¢ Kalshi $166 (weight 62%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48 million — 55¢ Kalshi $77 (weight 29%) - Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 48.5 million passengers in Q2 2026?: Above 48.5 million — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.332Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionual Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20United%20Airlines%20Holdings%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev