84% — What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Uncertainty at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 16 contracts · $221 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 23:40:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market participants' collective assessment that Ulta Beauty's next earnings call will feature notable uncertainty around key business metrics or forward guidance rather than definitive statements on specific topics. The 81% price on the 'Uncertainty' contract indicates traders believe management will likely discuss unresolved business challenges—such as traffic patterns, luxury segment performance, or holiday season outlook—without providing clear resolution. The leading alternative outcomes include discussion of Google/Gemini integration (50¢), holiday performance (48¢), traffic trends (53¢), and luxury category health (65¢). The contract structure suggests the market is pricing in elevated ambiguity in Ulta's near-term visibility, potentially reflecting broader retail sector volatility or challenges specific to Ulta's business. Resolution will depend on what management actually communicates when the next earnings call occurs, with the specific content of forward guidance being the critical factor determining which outcome occurs. Key factors: - The 'Uncertainty' contract commanding 81¢ suggests traders expect management will avoid definitive statements rather than provide clear, resolved outlooks on operational metrics - Multiple competing sub-50¢ contracts on specific topics (traffic, luxury, holiday, technology initiatives) indicate fragmentation in what traders expect to be discussed - The 24-hour volume pattern shows 'Uncertainty' contract with $110 volume versus $155 for Google/Gemini, suggesting active disagreement about whether specific initiatives or challenges will dominate the call - Ulta Beauty's retail performance in prior quarters and current market conditions will constrain what guidance management can realistically provide without significant revision - The contract outcomes appear mutually exclusive categories rather than binary yes/no questions, making this a genuine multi-way prediction on call content rather than a probability estimate of a single event Contracts: - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Uncertainty — 84¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 11%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Space NK — 80¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 13%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence — 76¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 17%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Target — 75¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 11%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Holiday — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Luxury — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Middle East — 64¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 14%) - What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Google / Gemini — 62¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 5%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T23:20:11.483Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionulta Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Ulta%20Beauty%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev