88% — What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call Leader: Tariff at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 14 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:56 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 41% probability that Urban Outfitters will mention tariffs during their next earnings call. The prediction reflects investor and trader expectations about whether tariff impacts or policy discussions will be material enough for management to address publicly. Tariff concerns have become more prominent in retail discourse due to recent trade policy developments, making this a plausible topic for retailer guidance. The probability would likely increase if tariffs directly affect Urban Outfitters' supply chain or inventory costs become visibly pressured, and decrease if supply chain normalization reduces tariff relevance. The key catalyst will be Urban Outfitters' actual next earnings call, where management will either discuss tariffs or remain silent on the topic, definitively resolving this outcome. Market liquidity suggests active debate, with the Holiday contract priced higher, indicating traders view seasonal guidance as more probable than tariff commentary. Key factors: - Urban Outfitters' sourcing geography and import exposure relative to competitors - Recent quarterly earnings transcripts and whether management has previously mentioned tariffs or trade policy - Current U.S. tariff policy environment and whether retailers broadly are discussing trade impacts in earnings calls - Market contract pricing shows Holiday guidance at 88 cents versus Tariff at 41 cents, suggesting traders view seasonal topics as more discussion-worthy - The timing and date of the next scheduled earnings call, which determines when this market resolves Contracts: - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Tariff — 88¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 55%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Back to School — 68¢ Kalshi $205 (weight 3%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Store Opening — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Headwind — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Refund — 63¢ Kalshi $852 (weight 14%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: IEEPA — 55¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 24%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: International / Internationally — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Urban Outfitters, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Supply Chain — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.446Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionurbn Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Urban%20Outfitters%2C%20Inc.%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev