87% — What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call Leader: Middle Market at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 16 contracts · $730 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 22:04:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This market predicts whether Wells Fargo will mention tariffs during their next earnings call, currently priced at 86% likelihood. The high probability reflects tariffs' prominence in recent economic discussions and their potential material impact on banking operations, particularly affecting loan portfolios, customer profitability, and lending guidance. Key factors include the current tariff environment's evolution, the timing of the earnings call relative to policy announcements, and historical precedent for tariff discussion in banking earnings. The market also prices in competing concerns like recession risks (14%) and stock buyback discussions (83%), suggesting investors view tariff mentions as more likely than recession commentary but less certain than buyback-related statements. Resolution will occur on Wells Fargo's next scheduled earnings call, likely in mid-July 2026, when the company's prepared remarks and analyst Q&A will be reviewed against the specific outcome contract language. Key factors: - Current U.S. tariff policy environment and any announced changes between now and earnings call date - Historical frequency of tariff mentions in prior Wells Fargo earnings calls and banking sector precedent - Timing alignment between earnings call date and major tariff-related policy announcements or implementation deadlines - Competitive contract pricing showing buyback discussion at 83% vs. tariff at 86%, indicating market differentiation between operational and capital allocation topics - Definition precision of 'mention' in the contract—whether passing reference counts or substantive discussion is required Contracts: - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Middle Market — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Delinquency — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Consecutive — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: AI / Artificial Intelligence — 75¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 4%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Premier — 65¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 35%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Basel 3 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Private Equity — 56¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - What will Wells Fargo & Company say during their next earnings call?: Headwind — 54¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 1%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T21:20:50.242Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earningsmentionwfc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Wells%20Fargo%20%26%20Company%20say%20during%20their%20next%20earnings%20call Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev