17% — Will an earthquake of at least 6.8 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026
Leader: At least 7.0 at 17% · Kalshi 17% · 5 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will an earthquake of at least 7.0 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.0 — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 96%)
- Will an earthquake of at least 7.1 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.1 — 8¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Will an earthquake of at least 7.2 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.2 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will an earthquake of at least 7.3 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.3 — 4¢ Kalshi $84 (weight 3%)
- Will an earthquake of at least 7.4 magnitude occur before Jun 1, 2026?: At least 7.4 — 3¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 1%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.227Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/earthquake
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20an%20earthquake%20of%20at%20least%206.8%20magnitude%20occur%20before%20Jun%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev