97% — Will eBay Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026 Leader: Above $84.5 billion at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This market assesses whether eBay will exceed $92 billion in gross merchandise volume during 2026. The 94% probability reflects high confidence in this outcome, though related contracts on lower thresholds ($86.5–$88.5 billion) trade at 31–41%, indicating some uncertainty about eBay's actual performance ceiling. The primary factors supporting this probability are eBay's historical GMV trajectory and expectations for modest growth in the e-commerce sector in 2026. Downside risks include macroeconomic headwinds affecting consumer spending, increased competition in online marketplaces, or shifts in seller participation. eBay will resolve this question when reporting full-year 2026 financial results, typically announced in early 2027. The gap between the $92 billion threshold and lower-tier contracts suggests market participants see meaningful probability mass distributed across a range of outcomes. Key factors: - eBay's reported GMV in 2025 and historical growth rates establish a baseline; achieving $92 billion would require acceleration, stagnation, or modest decline depending on recent trends - Related contracts at 31–41% for $86.5–$88.5 billion thresholds imply the 94% estimate may reflect strong priors rather than tight clustering around $92 billion - Consumer spending patterns and e-commerce sector growth in 2026 will materially affect marketplace transaction volumes - Competition from Amazon, Shopify, and regional platforms could constrain eBay seller recruitment and transaction growth - Full-year 2026 GMV will be reported in eBay's Q4 2026 earnings announcement, typically in early 2027, which will definitively resolve the contract Contracts: - Will eBay Inc. report Above $84.5 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $84.5 billion — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $85 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $85 billion — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $85.5 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $85.5 billion — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $86 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $86 billion — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $86.5 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $86.5 billion — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $87 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $87 billion — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $87.5 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $87.5 billion — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - Will eBay Inc. report Above $88 billion gross merchandise volume in 2026?: Above $88 billion — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:51.120Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ebaya Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20eBay%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20%2492%20billion%20gross%20merchandise%20volume%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev