66% — Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: South Sudan at 66% · Kalshi 66% · 20 contracts · $997 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:48:52 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents traders' assessment that at least one confirmed human Ebola case will be reported in South Sudan by year-end 2026, currently priced at 65% probability. The elevated probability reflects South Sudan's geographic proximity to recent Ebola activity in Central Africa, ongoing healthcare infrastructure challenges, and cross-border population movement. The baseline risk is pushed higher by historical patterns of spillover events and lower containment capacity compared to wealthier nations. The main factors that would shift this probability include: surveillance data from health agencies through the remainder of 2026, any confirmed cases in neighboring countries, or official statements from South Sudanese or international health authorities about outbreak risk. Real-time epidemiological monitoring by organizations like the WHO will be the primary mechanism for resolving this question. Key factors: - South Sudan's healthcare system capacity for detecting and confirming Ebola cases, compared to neighboring countries with active or recent transmission - Geographic and transportation links between South Sudan and areas with known Ebola circulation (Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic) - WHO and national health authority surveillance reports and case confirmations through December 2026 - Livestock trade and cross-border movement patterns that could facilitate zoonotic spillover or human transmission - Historical frequency of Ebola spillover events in sub-Saharan Africa and typical outbreak progression timelines Contracts: - Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: South Sudan — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Burundi — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Rwanda — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Central African Republic — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Tanzania — 25¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 7%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: United States — 23¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 9%) - Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Angola — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.763Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ebolacountry Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20human%20case%20of%20Ebola%20disease%20in%20South%20Sudan%20be%20reported%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev