68% — Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: South Sudan at 68% · Kalshi 68% · 20 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: South Sudan — 68¢ Kalshi $190 (weight 2%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya — 61¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Burundi — 55¢ Kalshi $361 (weight 3%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Rwanda — 54¢ Kalshi $492 (weight 5%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Rwanda — 50¢ Kalshi $569 (weight 5%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: India — 49¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Kenya — 48¢ Kalshi $402 (weight 4%)
- Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: South Sudan — 42¢ Kalshi $776 (weight 7%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.263Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "68% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ebolacountry
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20a%20human%20case%20of%20Ebola%20disease%20in%20South%20Sudan%20be%20reported%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev