33% — State of the economy at the end of 2026
Leader: Stagflation at 33% · Kalshi 33% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 35% probability reflects whether economic conditions in the United States will meet specific benchmarks by end-of-year 2026. The current level suggests markets view a moderate-to-low likelihood of the specified economic outcome, based on recent trading activity weighted toward flight cancellations and political developments. Key drivers of this assessment include near-term transportation disruptions—notably high cancellation rates in early May—and midterm political signals like Senate endorsements that often correlate with economic sentiment. The probability will likely shift based on monthly economic data releases, labor reports, and any systemic disruptions to travel or commerce through November 2026. Uncertainty centers on whether current economic headwinds will persist, stabilize, or intensify over the remainder of the year.

Key factors:
- Flight cancellations for the week ending May 8, 2026 are priced at 84% probability above 1600 but only 65% above 2100, suggesting moderate operational stress in transportation
- Political activity around the Nebraska Senate race (Dan Osborn/Bernie Sanders endorsement at 44%) may indicate broader economic discontent or activism levels
- The probability has remained stable around 35% despite near-term data, suggesting traders view current conditions as neither dramatically improving nor worsening
- Monthly employment reports, inflation data, and GDP revisions through December 2026 will be primary drivers of probability shifts
- No single resolution date is specified, indicating this aggregates expectations across multiple concurrent economic metrics rather than one discrete event

Contracts:
- State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Stagflation — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Overheating — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026?: Soft landing — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "33% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econpath
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=State%20of%20the%20economy%20at%20the%20end%20of%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev