40% — CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026
Leader: Exactly 2.8% at 40% · Kalshi 40% · 19 contracts · $694 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 8% probability indicates traders assess a low likelihood that core CPI year-over-year inflation will be exactly at a specific target level in August 2026. The recent data points show core inflation readings around 2.2-2.8%, suggesting the market expects continued moderation or stability in core price pressures. Key factors influencing this assessment include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, wage growth trends, and supply-chain conditions. The August 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early September 2026, will definitively resolve this contract. Until then, traders are weighing the path of inflation over the coming months against the specific price target embedded in this contract. The low probability reflects either market consensus around a different inflation outcome, or uncertainty about which exact level core CPI will reach.

Key factors:
- Core inflation readings in April and June 2026 ranged 2.2-2.8%, establishing the recent trend traders are extrapolating forward
- The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and August will influence whether inflation accelerates, stabilizes, or declines further
- Wage growth data and labor market conditions directly impact service-sector inflation, a major component of core CPI
- Supply-chain disruptions or commodity price movements could shift inflation expectations before the August data release
- The specific price target of this contract may not align with market consensus on the most likely outcome, explaining the low 8% probability

Contracts:
- CPI core year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 2.8% — 40¢ Kalshi $694 (weight 100%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.7% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 2.6% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.5% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 2.6% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.0% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.191Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatcorecpiyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CPI%20core%20year-over-year%20in%20Aug%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev