12% — CPI core year-over-year in Aug 2026 Leader: Exactly 3.3% at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 16 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 18:15:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents a 47% probability that core CPI year-over-year inflation will be exactly 2.8% in August 2026. The market is pricing meaningful uncertainty around whether inflation settles at this specific level versus slightly higher (2.9%) or lower (2.7%) readings. The probability reflects mixed signals about disinflation trends: while some contracts suggest inflation moderating below 2.8%, others price in stickiness above it. The August CPI report, scheduled for early September 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome. Until then, incoming economic data on services inflation, wage pressures, and Fed policy signals will influence whether traders shift conviction toward the 2.8% outcome or toward adjacent price levels. The current 47% leader suggests meaningful probability mass distributed across the 2.7%-3.0% range rather than consensus convergence. Key factors: - The leading 2.8% contract at 51¢ implies meaningful uncertainty, with 49¢ of probability mass distributed across alternative outcomes including 2.9% (26¢) and 2.7% (19¢) - Core PCE and core CPI trends from June and July 2026 will establish the baseline trajectory; any deceleration or re-acceleration in services inflation would shift odds between the 2.7%, 2.8%, and 2.9% outcomes - Federal Reserve monetary policy communications and labor market data between now and early September will influence expectations for disinflation persistence versus stalling momentum - The actual August 2026 CPI release in early September 2026 is the single event that will resolve this contract to either 100¢ (if outcome matches) or 0¢ - Trading volume concentration ($383 24h on the 2.8% outcome vs. lower volumes on alternatives) suggests retail participation may not yet be fully pricing equilibrium across all price bins Contracts: - CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.3% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.7% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.4% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.5% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.6% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.4% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.2% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?: Exactly 2.3% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 6%) - ... and 8 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-25T17:20:51.885Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatcorecpiyoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CPI%20core%20year-over-year%20in%20Aug%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev