9% — CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026
Kalshi 9% · 10 contracts · $20 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 17:00:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates the probability that consumer prices will increase by exactly 0.2% month-over-month in April 2026. The current 56% probability for this outcome reflects expectations about inflation momentum through mid-2026. The prediction is driven by recent CPI trends and Federal Reserve policy trajectory; movements would depend on whether inflation accelerates above or decelerates below the 0.2% baseline. The April 2026 CPI release, scheduled for May 2026, will directly resolve this contract. Until then, actual inflation readings for preceding months and Fed rate decisions will influence expectations about whether April's monthly print matches this specific threshold.

Key factors:
- Historical CPI month-over-month readings from late 2025 through March 2026 establish the baseline trend trajectory
- Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance between now and April 2026 affects inflation expectations and nominal price pressures
- Energy and commodity price movements, which significantly influence monthly CPI swings, remain volatile and difficult to forecast
- The exact 0.2% threshold is relatively precise; outcomes of 0.1% or 0.3% would resolve the contract to zero despite mathematical proximity
- Labor market tightness and wage growth through Q1 2026 will influence service-sector inflation components reflected in April CPI data

Contracts:
- CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.2% — 9¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 50%)
- CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.3% — 4¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 50%)
- CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.2% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.3% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.4% — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Nov 2026?: Exactly 0.6% — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.4% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Oct 2026?: Exactly 0.5% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T16:20:49.676Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatcpi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CPI%20month-over-month%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev