34% — CPI month-over-month in Apr 2026
Leader: Exactly -0.1% at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 17 contracts · $804 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
A 20% probability indicates traders expect April 2026's month-over-month CPI increase to fall at or below 0.5%, with a much lower chance of exceeding 0.6%. This reflects recent inflation trends and base effects. The market shows higher confidence in year-over-year inflation staying near 3.8% and remaining above 3.6%, but minimal expectation of reaching 4.0%. Month-over-month movements depend on energy prices, seasonal adjustments, and wage pressures during this period. The April 2026 CPI report release will provide the definitive data point, likely arriving in early May 2026, immediately resolving all related contracts.

Key factors:
- Year-over-year inflation traders price at 3.8%, suggesting modest month-over-month growth necessary to maintain that rate given April 2025 base effects
- Probability of MoM exceeding 0.6% prices at only 21¢, indicating strong consensus against larger monthly moves
- 52¢ probability for exceeding 0.5% MoM suggests uncertainty clusters around the 0.4-0.6% range rather than decisively lower or higher
- Only 3¢ probability for YoY above 4.0% reflects trader conviction that year-end inflation remains firmly below that threshold
- Trading volume concentrates on 0.5-0.6% thresholds ($2.8-2.9K daily), indicating this is the primary range of disagreement

Contracts:
- CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?: Exactly -0.1% — 34¢ Kalshi $436 (weight 54%)
- CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?: Exactly -0.2% — 34¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Aug 2026?: Exactly 0.2% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Aug 2026?: Exactly 0.3% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?: Exactly 0.0% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?: Exactly 0.1% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Jul 2026?: Exactly 0.5% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- CPI month-over-month in Jun 2026?: Exactly -0.3% — 10¢ Kalshi $164 (weight 20%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.716Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatcpi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CPI%20month-over-month%20in%20Apr%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev