45% — CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026 Leader: Exactly 3.8% at 45% · Kalshi 45% · 17 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:40 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes. Why this matters: This 7% probability represents the market's current assessment that the headline Consumer Price Index will increase by exactly 2.7% year-over-year when June 2026 data is released. The current pricing reflects expectations that inflation will remain relatively stable near the Federal Reserve's target, though the low probability assigned to any single outcome point indicates substantial uncertainty about the exact reading. The June CPI release—scheduled for early July 2026—will provide critical data on whether recent inflation trends have continued, accelerated, or moderated. Market participants are weighing factors including recent monetary policy decisions, labor market dynamics, and energy price movements. The concentration of contract prices around 2.6-3.0% suggests consensus clustering, but the fragmentation across multiple specific outcomes explains why the single 2.7% contract carries only 7% odds despite representing the modal expectation. Key factors: - The June CPI release date (typically early July) serves as the hard resolution event; prior weekly jobless claims, producer price data, and energy prices will provide directional signals - Recent Fed policy stance and forward guidance on interest rates influence expectations for the inflation trajectory between now and June - Energy commodity prices and supply disruptions could materially shift the 2-3% forecast range, as gasoline and heating costs feed directly into headline CPI - Wage growth trends and labor market tightness in May-June will affect core CPI momentum and potentially headline readings - The distribution of open contracts shows expectations concentrated 2.6-3.0%, making outcomes outside this band statistically less probable but not precluded by market data Contracts: - CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.8% — 45¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 72%) - CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.7% — 27¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%) - CPI year-over-year in Jun 2026?: Exactly 3.9% — 13¢ Kalshi $716 (weight 7%) - CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.7% — 12¢ Kalshi $36 (weight 0%) - CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.5% — 11¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 2%) - CPI year-over-year in Jul 2026?: Exactly 3.6% — 10¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 2%) - CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.1% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?: Exactly 3.4% — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.675Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatcpiyoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CPI%20year-over-year%20in%20Jun%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev