35% — Unemployment rate in May 2026
Leader: Exactly 4.3% at 35% · Kalshi 35% · 14 contracts · $175 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 29% probability reflects market expectations that the May 2026 unemployment rate will be exactly 3.9%, based on trading activity on Kalshi contracts. The prediction centers on a narrow range between 3.9% and 4.3%, suggesting relatively stable labor market conditions. Employment outcomes depend primarily on recent job creation trends, initial jobless claims patterns, and broader economic growth momentum. The unemployment rate will be officially released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in early June 2026, resolving all uncertainty around this metric. Leading economic indicators from late April and May—including payroll reports, labor force participation rates, and any recession signals—will significantly influence the final reading and determine whether actual unemployment tracks toward or away from the 3.9% consensus estimate.

Key factors:
- May 2026 BLS employment report will show the exact unemployment rate; official release scheduled for early June 2026
- Recent monthly job creation figures and initial jobless claims data through May will directly drive the unemployment reading
- Labor force participation rate changes could offset headline employment gains or losses
- Any significant economic shocks or policy changes between now and the May data collection period could shift outcomes
- The tight contract pricing (ranging 4¢–9¢) indicates low absolute probability for any single outcome, reflecting high uncertainty

Contracts:
- Unemployment rate in Jun 2026?: Exactly 4.3% — 35¢ Kalshi $175 (weight 100%)
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.5% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.4% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Oct 2026?: Exactly 4.9% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.6% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.9% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 3.6% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Unemployment rate in Nov 2026?: Exactly 4.4% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:10.842Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/econstatu3
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Unemployment%20rate%20in%20May%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev