20% — Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro
Kalshi 20% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-20 20:44:46 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the estimated chance that CSD Independiente del Valle will win the Ecuador LigaPro championship. The 19% probability reflects modest competitive positioning compared to other contenders in what appears to be a competitive league season. The current level is primarily influenced by recent team performance metrics and historical competitiveness. Key factors pushing this probability would include consistent winning streaks, improved goal differential, or favorable head-to-head records against top competitors. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the accumulation of match results throughout the remainder of the season, with particular attention to performances against higher-ranked contenders like CD Cuenca (36¢) and CS Emelec (33¢). Market pricing suggests Independiente del Valle is neither the favorite nor an outsider, indicating mid-tier competitive status with realistic title chances dependent on sustained performance.

Key factors:
- Current league table position and points accumulation relative to CD Cuenca, CS Emelec, and other top-six competitors
- Head-to-head results and goal differential in direct matchups against the three highest-probability contenders
- Recent form over the past 5-10 matches, including consistency in wins versus draws or losses
- Injury status of key players and roster availability for critical upcoming fixtures
- Goal-scoring efficiency and defensive record compared to the league average and direct competitors

Contracts:
- Will Barcelona SC win the Ecuador LigaPro?: Barcelona SC — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will CS Emelec win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CS Emelec — 33¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will CD Cuenca win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CD Cuenca — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will CSD Independiente del Valle win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CSD Independiente del Valle — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will LDU Quito win the Ecuador LigaPro?: LDU Quito — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will CSD Macara win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CSD Macara — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will SD Aucas win the Ecuador LigaPro?: SD Aucas — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will CD Tecnico Universitario win the Ecuador LigaPro?: CD Tecnico Universitario — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-20T20:20:49.064Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/eculp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CSD%20Independiente%20del%20Valle%20win%20the%20Ecuador%20LigaPro
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev