82% — Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 12.5%
Leader: Above 5% at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 4 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:54:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 60% probability that US effective tariff rates exceeded 12.5% in Q1 2026, calculated as customs duties collected divided by nominal goods imports. The current price reflects expectations about tariff policy implementation and trade dynamics in early 2026. Upward pressure on this rate could come from newly imposed duties or enforcement actions, while downward pressure would result from increased import volumes or lower duty collections. The resolution hinges on official US Census Bureau data releases for Q1 2026 trade figures, typically published in subsequent months. Current trading shows lower confidence in higher threshold scenarios (above 10% at 6%, above 12.5% at 3%), suggesting markets view substantial tariff escalation as unlikely despite the base case exceeding 5%.

Key factors:
- Q1 2026 tariff policy framework and any new duties implemented relative to baseline rates
- Relationship between nominal import volumes in Q1 2026 and customs duty collections
- Historical US effective tariff rates and deviation from recent trends in early 2026
- Contract price discrepancy showing 60% probability for above 5% but only 3% for above 12.5%, indicating steep probability decline at higher thresholds
- US Census Bureau data release timing and accuracy of preliminary versus final Q1 2026 trade statistics

Contracts:
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 5%?: Above 5% — 82¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 99%)
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 7.5%?: Above 7.5% — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 10%?: Above 10% — 7¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 1%)
- Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q2 2026 be above 12.5%?: Above 12.5% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-09T21:20:50.163Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/efftariff
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20effective%20tariff%20rate%20(customs%20duties%20collected%20%C3%B7%20nominal%20imports%20of%20goods%2C%20represented%20by%20B235RC1Q027SBEA%20%C3%B7%20A255RC1Q027SBEA)%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%2012.5%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev