25% — Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran
Polymarket 25% · 1 contracts · $854 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:59:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the market's estimate that Iran will defeat Egypt in an upcoming match. At 27%, the market is pricing Iran as a clear underdog against Egypt. The probability reflects Iran's recent competitive struggles and Egypt's historical strength in regional football, though Iran's performance has been volatile. Key drivers of this level include each team's current roster quality, recent head-to-head records, and their form leading into the fixture. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the match result itself. Market participants will likely adjust their position based on official team lineups, any late injury announcements, or recent competitive performance in the days immediately before kickoff.

Key factors:
- Iran's historical win rate against Egypt in official competitions and recent head-to-head matchups
- Current FIFA ranking differential and recent qualification performance by each nation
- Availability of key players and reported injuries to starting lineups
- Venue location (home advantage) and travel conditions for the match
- Recent form trajectory of Iran measured by wins/losses in prior 5-10 competitive matches

Contracts:
- Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran — 25¢ Polymarket $854 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/egypt-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Egypt%20vs.%20IR%20Iran%3A%20IR%20Iran
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev