87% — Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M
Leader: Above 3.70M at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 8 contracts · $34 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 16:09:44 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market assigns a 92% probability that US existing home sales in July 2026 will exceed 3.80 million units, indicating traders expect sales to remain above this threshold. Existing home sales reflect housing market liquidity and consumer purchasing power; sustained sales above 3.80M would suggest housing demand has stabilized despite broader economic conditions. The primary drivers are mortgage rate levels and inventory availability—lower rates and adequate supply tend to support transactions, while rate spikes or inventory constraints dampen sales. The resolution depends on the National Association of Realtors' official July 2026 existing home sales report, typically released in late August. Market pricing shows steep probability drops at higher thresholds (65% at 4.00M, 42% at 4.10M), reflecting trader skepticism about significantly elevated sales volumes.

Key factors:
- NAR existing home sales data for July 2026 will be released in late August, providing the definitive figure needed to resolve the contract
- Mortgage rates in July 2026 will influence refinancing activity and buyer incentives; rates above 7% have historically correlated with weaker existing sales volumes
- Inventory levels heading into summer typically peak in late June-July; higher inventory generally supports higher transaction volumes
- Year-over-year sales comparisons matter: if July 2025 existing sales were weak, even modest increases could push 2026 above 3.80M
- Fed policy decisions and inflation data through July 2026 will shape rate expectations, directly affecting borrowing conditions for home purchases

Contracts:
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 3.70M?: Above 3.70M — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 3.80M?: Above 3.80M — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 3.90M?: Above 3.90M — 72¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 74%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 4.00M?: Above 4.00M — 52¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 26%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 4.10M?: Above 4.10M — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 4.20M?: Above 4.20M — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 4.30M?: Above 4.30M — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will US existing home sales for August 2026 be above 4.40M?: Above 4.40M — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T15:20:50.840Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ehsales
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20existing%20home%20sales%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%203.70M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev