93% — Will US existing home sales for April 2026 be above 3.70M
Leader: Above 3.80M at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:36:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether existing home sales in the United States will reach or exceed 3.70 million units for April 2026. The current 35% probability reflects skepticism about achieving this threshold. Home sales are influenced primarily by mortgage rates and housing inventory levels. Higher rates typically reduce buyer demand, while limited inventory can constrain transaction volume. The National Association of Realtors releases existing home sales data monthly, with April 2026 figures expected in late May 2026. This release will directly resolve the contract. Historical context matters: existing home sales have fluctuated between roughly 3.5-4.5 million units annually in recent years depending on rate environments and inventory conditions. The outcome will depend on whether market conditions in April supported sufficient transaction velocity to cross the 3.70M threshold.

Key factors:
- Mortgage rates in April 2026 and their trend relative to prior months, as rates above 7% typically suppress buyer activity
- Inventory levels of available homes for sale, since limited supply constrains the total number of possible transactions
- The National Association of Realtors' May 2026 data release will provide the definitive April existing home sales figure
- Year-over-year comparison to April 2025 sales volume and whether seasonal patterns held consistent
- Credit conditions and lending standards, which affect buyer qualification rates and purchasing power

Contracts:
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 3.80M?: Above 3.80M — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 3.90M?: Above 3.90M — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.00M?: Above 4.00M — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.10M?: Above 4.10M — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.20M?: Above 4.20M — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.30M?: Above 4.30M — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.40M?: Above 4.40M — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)
- Will US existing home sales for June 2026 be above 4.50M?: Above 4.50M — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.223Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ehsales
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20US%20existing%20home%20sales%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%203.70M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev