19% — Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa
Kalshi 19% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:02 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the likelihood that Zaglebie Lubin finishes first in Poland's top football division during the 2026 season. At 16%, the probability reflects the team's historical performance and current competitive position relative to stronger Polish clubs. The main drivers of this probability are Zaglebie's recent league standings, squad composition, and injury status compared to rivals like Legia Warsaw and Cracovia. The probability will shift substantially based on performance in matches from May through the season's conclusion, with playoff or championship outcomes in late 2026 providing the final resolution. Market participants are pricing in moderate odds that account for the competitive depth of the Ekstraklasa while acknowledging Zaglebie's position as a mid-tier contender rather than a favorite.

Key factors:
- Zaglebie's current league position as of May 2026 and point differential versus leading clubs
- Squad depth and key player availability, particularly in defensive and attacking positions
- Head-to-head record and remaining fixtures against primary title contenders
- Historical performance patterns: Zaglebie has not won the Ekstraklasa since 1991
- Coaching staff experience and tactical adjustments made during the season

Contracts:
- Will Pogon Szczecin win the Ekstraklasa?: Pogon Szczecin — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Zaglebie Lubin win the Ekstraklasa?: Zaglebie Lubin — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Lech Poznan win the Ekstraklasa?: Lech Poznan — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Jagiellonia win the Ekstraklasa?: Jagiellonia — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Wisla Plock win the Ekstraklasa?: Wisla Plock — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Radomiak Radom win the Ekstraklasa?: Radomiak Radom — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Legia Warszawa win the Ekstraklasa?: Legia Warszawa — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will Gornik Zabrze win the Ekstraklasa?: Gornik Zabrze — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ekstraklasa
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Zaglebie%20Lubin%20win%20the%20Ekstraklasa
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev