31% — Zaglebie Lubin vs Nieciecza Winner
Kalshi 31% · 15 contracts · $106 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:19 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Zaglebie Lubin will defeat Nieciecza in an upcoming match. The 17% price suggests bookmakers and traders view Zaglebie as the underdog, with stronger probability assigned to either Katowice winning or a draw based on the related contracts. The probability level is driven by relative team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history between these Polish Ekstraklasa opponents. Key uncertainty stems from team lineup changes, injuries to key players, and home-field advantage dynamics. The market will resolve once the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current trading volume on this specific matchup is minimal ($0 in the past 24 hours), suggesting limited market conviction and the possibility that the probability reflects sparse pricing data rather than robust consensus.

Key factors:
- Zaglebie Lubin's recent league position and points total compared to Nieciecza's current standing in the Polish Ekstraklasa
- Head-to-head historical performance between these two teams, including wins, losses, and goal differential
- Team news including confirmed injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes announced before match day
- Home vs. away status of each team, as one team's home-field advantage typically affects win probability
- Trading volume remains negligible on this specific contract, indicating the 17% price may reflect thin liquidity rather than strong analytical consensus

Contracts:
- Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin Winner?: Zaglebie Lubin — 17¢ Kalshi $95 (weight 90%)
- Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Winner?: Tie — 18¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 5%)
- Wisla Plock vs Motor Lublin Winner?: Tie — 24¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 3%)
- Gliwice vs Katowice Winner?: Tie — 23¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 3%)
- Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Cracovia Krakow — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Radomiak Radom — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Cracovia Krakow vs Radomiak Radom Winner?: Tie — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Winner?: Nieciecza — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ekstraklasagame
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Zaglebie%20Lubin%20vs%20Nieciecza%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev