18% — 2026 midterm election odds
Kalshi 18% · 12 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:39:06 UTC

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently indicate a 40% probability that Democrats secure a significant legislative sweep by holding at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats. There is a strong consensus that Senate Democratic incumbents are relatively safe, with a 78% probability that zero current Senate Democrats lose their re-election bids.

Key factors:
- 40% probability of Democratic House and Senate sweep
- 78% probability of zero Senate Democratic losses
- High stability for Senate incumbents
- Market focus on specific seat thresholds

Contracts:
- Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026?: Yes — 40¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 66%)
- Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Maine — 7¢ Kalshi $940 (weight 28%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 51¢ Kalshi $152 (weight 4%)
- Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio — 11¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 2%)
- Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas — 16¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 0%)
- Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Georgia — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026?: Yes — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Michigan — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:51.471Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/election-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20midterm%20election%20odds
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev