16% — 2026 midterm election odds
Kalshi 16% · Polymarket 13% · 16 contracts · $903 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently suggest a 58% probability that an independent or third-party candidate will win a seat in the U.S. House or Senate during the 2026 midterm elections. Conversely, markets place the odds of the Republican Party losing their House majority before the 2026 midterms at only 20%. Regarding party control, there is a 46% likelihood that Democrats will win the Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine.

Key factors:
- 58% independent candidate victory
- 46% Democratic Senate seat sweep
- 20% GOP House majority loss
- Political shift outlook

Contracts:
- Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: 51 — 18¢ Polymarket $561 (weight 62%)
- Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026?: Yes — 36¢ Kalshi $314 (weight 35%)
- Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas — 17¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 3%)
- Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Maine — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will Democrats win the 2026 senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine?: Yes — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Georgia — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will any independent or third-party candidate win an election in the U.S. House or Senate in 2026?: Yes — 52¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will New Hampshire have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: New Hampshire — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.263Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "16% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/election-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20midterm%20election%20odds
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev